April 2008

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04/26/08 Chase Summary

Saturday I got just about exactly what I was expecting. Some great storm structure and my first good chance to try some lightning photography with my new Canon Rebel xti. Overall I am pleased with my first attempts, but as always, there is room for much improvement.

I missed the really great shot Steve Miller got as I was setting up my camera. But later got the above shot, which I love, and this one below, which was actually a mistake because I bumped the camera with the shutter open, but it still came out a very cool shot I think.

After meeting up with Steve we shortly ran into Jason Boggs and we all spend the rest of the evening repositioning in front of the storms to stay out of the rain and shoot lighting.

When I got the above shot I was very excited because on the camera LCD it looked like an awesome shot. It wasn’t until I got it on the bigger computer screen later I realized it was not completely in focus. How disappointing! I was able to clean it up a little in post work, enough for a decent pic for the web anyway. I did however get the one below later in perfect focus. Too bad it wasn’t a CG.

Well parted ways somewhere near Roby, TX and as they went home I stuck around a little while longer, addicted to the lightning and wanting a few more chances. Unfortunately, the cloud to ground lightning I wanted died off after they left. I ended the day with the shot below which was nice however.

It was a good first chance to use my new camera for EXACTLY what I wanted it for. I obviously still have a great deal to learn, but it should only get better from here!

There could be an outside chance I might chase in OK this coming Thursday, but it’s not likely. I don’t care for the SSW winds just above the surface. It’s more likely I will be chasing in the coming Sunday/Monday time frame, and a bit closer to home as well. Still a bit far out in the models to get specific, but I’ll keep an eye on it and start blogging the forecast as we get closer. In the mean time, I’ll catch up on some work!

Written by David on April 29th, 2008 with 5 comments.
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04/26/08 Chase Update 2

As expected, ended up with several high based storms across the south plains and low rolling plains.  Called off the chase at Roby as the lightning was dying off.  Just got in and very tired, so I will post a chase summary tomorrow complete with pictures!

Written by David on April 27th, 2008 with 2 comments.
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04/26/08 Chase Update

Ok, as expected storms along and ahead of the front up in the panhandle have developed. Strong towering CU are now evident right above me here at home, so I am heading out the door, probably won’t venture too far until I see something that looks like it’s going to hold together. Running solo, so blog updates may be sparse. Live ChaseCam should be up and running here shortly.

Written by David on April 26th, 2008 with 2 comments.
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04/26/08 Chase Forecast Update 1

Moisture seems to be progressing north right on schedule but is combating strong daytime mixing of the atmosphere.  Above is the current visible satellite image of this writing where I analyzed the important current surface features we are concerned with today.  Dryline is taking shape across the western Permian Basin with the warm front noted by the leading edge of the 50F dewpoints mainly, draped out east toward Dallas/Ft. Worth.

A CU (cumulous clouds) field is developing in the narrow tongue of moisture moving in to west Texas right into the triple point as we would expect.  SPC Mesoanalysis indicates CAPES from 500-1000 in this area now as well.

Expect storms might fire first up in the Texas Panhandle in the Amarillo area ahead of and along a strong cold front we will be having to deal with later tonight (undercutting storms and high winds to 55 mph behind it).

Shortly after those storms get going we should see our “warm sector” storms get fired off, possible here in the next 3 hours.  Still expecting about the same, although as we get closer to dark, we could have a fairly high damaging wind potential to deal with as well.

Still staying put for a bit and monitoring…

Written by David on April 26th, 2008 with no comments.
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04/26/08 Chase Forecast

Once again the Lubbock NWS folks have provided an excellent graphic of the expected weather synopsis for late this afternoon.

Essentially, we have a similar situation as we did on Wednesday, but this time with less moisture to work with and the wind fields will be weaker.

Expecting a triple point late this afternoon across west Texas with a warm front and dryline intersection somewhere to the southwest of Lubbock. Moisture currently is slowly returning in the wake of the cold front that blew through yesterday, with what appears to be a narrow tongue of moisture coming up the Mexico side of the Rio Grand and then up between Midland and Big Spring, TX. Leading edge of 50F dewpoints now showing up on the West Texas Mesonet in Dawson County south of Lubbock. This is expected to strengthen later in the day which will increasingly aid in moisture advecting northward into our target area.

The wind profiles as we go up through the atmosphere are directionally favorable for supercells, with excellent directional sheer between the lower and mid levels in excess of 45 degrees! They aren’t however expected to be particularly strong, but with that much directional sheer it can make up for some lack of speed shear.

Currently skies are completely completely clear per visible satellite image across the entire area, allowing ample sunshine to work on getting the instability going.

Right now I will be watching that moisture return carefully, and since this is very close to home, I can hold out to the last minute before heading out once I start seeing some cumulus clouds developing which I expect will visually tell me exactly where that triple point is. I am expecting high based supercells, which would probably preclude and tornadoes of any significance, and possibly some pretty good sized hail. I suspect the big prize today might be in some awesome storm structure due to the directional sheer and perhaps some good lightning after dark (which I haven’t really had a chance to try out my new Canon Digital camera on this year).

However… should moisture return be a little more robust, tornado chances would increase as well. Even that said, if something were to latch on to the warm front, which would be laying on an east/west line, I wouldn’t rule out one there either. In fact, I have seen past setups like this where a storm found a boundary and produced some excellent landspout type tornadoes. In my own personal experience, one you get supercell storms, you can’t completely rule out a tornado, high based storm or otherwise.

Current expected target is Plains, TX, to be adjusted as needed as the day wears on. The LIVE ChaseCam will be active once I hit the road. I plan to post an update before I head out, but will have limited opportunities one storms get going as I expect I will be chasing solo today and being in the KCBD viewing area, they usually keep me quite busy as well. My chase partner Graham may head out in Chase Unit 2 later, but I haven’t spoken with him yet.

Written by David on April 26th, 2008 with no comments.
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