Preliminary damage estimates by the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, North Dakota rate the nearly mile wide tornado that hit Northwood, ND at either a strong EF3 or weak EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.
Wow. Seems to be turning out to be the year of Small Town/Big Tornado. This is one of several small towns that has been heavily damaged by tornadoes this year. We aren’t talking small ones either, but massive tornadoes. This year has served up what in my memory seems to be the most LARGE tornadoes we have had in a given year. In fact, although I don’t know what the official tornado count is right now, it does seem we have had a healthy number of tornados this year, and I suspect we will end up above average. An average number of confirmed tornadoes in the U.S. every year is about 1000.
It was interesting to note that the one person killed in this tornado lived in one of the two destroyed mobile home park (where many of the injuries were also). He was taking shelter IN his mobile home when he was killed. How many times must it be said… DO NOT TAKE SHELTER IN YOUR MOBILE HOME FROM TORNADOES!
Another interesting note, as we always see when people are interviewed after an event like this, someone gets on camera saying how they had NO WARNING. As often is the case however, there in fact WAS advanced warning of this tornado. The storm had SEVERE warnings on it prior to the tornado, and a tornado warning was issued at 8:41 pm stating the radar indicated tornado was 3 miles west or Northwood moving east at 30 mph. According to the Grand Forks Herald, the tornado touched down between 8:50 and 8:52 pm. It isn’t clear by the article if that was the actual tornado formation time, or the time it hit the town, but assuming they are talking about the time it hit the town, that’s a good 10 minutes of advanced warning!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND841 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SOUTHERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA…
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GRAND FORKS…
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT
* AT 840 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES WEST OF
NORTHWOOD…OR 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS…MOVING TO THE
EAST AT 30 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
HOLMES AT 910 PM CDT…
THOMPSON AT 925 PM CDT…
8 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND FORKS AT 935 PM CDT…
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES
FOR A STURDY BUILDING.
…DANTE SOUTH DAKOTA HAILSTONE OFFICIALLY MEASURED AT 5.25 INCHES…
LARGE HAIL FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
EVENING AUGUST 21 2007. THE SMALL COMMUNITY OF DANTE…IN SOUTHEAST
CHARLES MIX COUNTY…TOOK A DIRECT HIT FROM THE LARGE HAIL. MOST
HOMES IN DANTE SUSTAINED CONSIDERABLE HAIL DAMAGE…WITH HOLES
PUNCHED IN ALMOST EVERY ROOF IN TOWN BY THE LARGE HAIL.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEYED THE DAMAGE AND FOUND THE
LARGEST HAILSTONE TO BE 5.25 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THIS HAILSTONE WAS
NOT PICKED UP FOR 10 TO 20 MINUTES AFTER IT FELL…SO WAS LIKELY
LARGER WHEN IT HIT THE GROUND. THE LARGE HAIL CREATED CRATERS UP TO
10 INCHES BY 12 INCHES IN THE YARDS THROUGHOUT DANDE. THE LARGEST
HAIL FELL AT APPROXIMATELY 610 PM ON AUGUST 21 2007.
WHILE UNUSUALLY LARGE AND VERY DAMAGING…THE DANTE HAIL DOES NOT
SET A NATIONAL OR STATE RECORD.
THE NATIONAL RECORD HAIL IS 7 INCHES ACROSS…MEASURED AT AURORA
NEBRASKA ON JUNE 22 2003. THE SOUTH DAKOTA RECORD…SINCE
1950…APPEARS TO BE 6.00 INCHES IN CUSTER COUNTY ON JUNE 22 1968.
MORE RECENT NOTABLE LARGE HAIL IN SOUTH DAKOTA INCLUDES 4.25 INCHES
2 MILES SOUTH OF DELMONT IN DOUGLAS COUNTY ON SEPTEMBER 16 2006 AND
4.25 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN SULLY COUNTY 8 MILES WEST OF AGAR ON
AUGUST 24 2006.
PICTURES OF THE DANTE HAIL AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGE…WILL BE POSTED TO
THE WFO SIOUX FALLS NEWS HEADLINE WEB PAGE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FSD BY
NOON THURSDAY AUGUST 23 2000
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Unbelievable! I would give a significant and important body part to have been there to get video of that coming down. However, I can only guess that would have been terrifying!! I have personally witnessed cantaloupe size hail, and that was pretty scary, but to imagine hail coming down that would make those kind of craters. I wonder what livestock, if any, was killed around there by that? What is really incredible is when you have to think about the vertical wind speeds in the updraft of that storm capable of suspending hail until it reached that size! What an intense storm!
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EDIT UPDATE:
The largest hailstone (pictured below) documented in Dante was officially measured by Dr. Todey at 6 and 7/8 inches in diameter, with a circumference of 18.00 inches and a weight of 1.0 pound, which does set a new record for the state of South Dakota. The previous South Dakota hailstone record was 6.00 inches in Custer County on June 22 1968. Records for hail in South Dakota date back to 1950.Nationally, the largest hailstone on record (based on diameter and circumference) occurred at Aurora, Nebraska, on June 22, 2003. The 2003 Aurora hailstone measured 7 inches in diameter, and had a circumference of 18.75 inches. The Dante hailstone fell just short of this, coming in 1/8 inch shorter, and 3/4 inch smaller in circumference.
As some of my readers know, I have been keeping up with the status of Hurricane Dean in the event of a potential landfall in South Texas, as a possible hurricane chasing opportunity. It’s been clear to me for at least a couple of days now that Dean is posing no threat to the Texas coast, and will be heading in to mainland Mexico. Even a layperson to weather can see that for themselves just by reading and looking at the graphics on the Hurricane Prediction Center website.
For several days now I have been monitoring the local news and ham radio discussion lists about the preparations going on for possible evacuees coming to Lubbock. Similar preparations are going on all over the state. Earlier on, this was a prudent move to start preparations to be sure, as it did appear there was at least a 50/50 chance of a strike in south Texas. However, as the forecast track and model data has come closer to the event, it has become more and more clear that Dean will NOT hit Texas at all.
Now, you would think once the forecast track of the storm was becoming more evident, preparations that had begun would start to stand down. The reality is, just today President Bush declared an Emergency in Texas and ordered FEMA to move.
FEMA Administrator Paulison has ordered mission assignments completed to ensure critical resources and operations as needed from other federal agencies are brought to bear in support of Texas. FEMA has made 26 mission assignments to other federal agencies and American Red Cross for support of Tropical Storm Erin and Hurricane Dean.
What a tremendous waste of people time, money, energy and resources! I could understand had this been done several days ago, but as I said, it’s been pretty clear for at least a couple of days that Dean was not going to pose a threat to Texas. That action was taken TODAY, the same day the graphic above comes from. The millions of dollars (if not Billions) spent on these operations is nearly impossible to get your head around.
In Texas, South Padre Island has already been declared in a State of Emergency (keep in mind that this is HUNDREDS of miles from where hurricane force winds are currently expected to be). Texas Department of Criminal Justice is already evacuating several prison facilities in the south Texas area. In addition, uniformed personnel with hundreds of buses and aircraft have been moved to and readied for evacuation efforts in an area where much of the population does not have their own transportation.
So why is this happening? One word, Katrina. After the well deserved spanking that the federal government received for their slow response to Hurricane Katrina (or lack thereof in some cases) they have shifted to polar opposites and now are seriously overreacting. The good side to this I suppose is this makes for a good dry run for when the next Hurricane DOES indeed come into the U.S. coast. I guess one could surmise that this was all a big public “show of force” to ease the American public’s thinking that the government is indeed ready to do things right this time.
Could I be wrong and Dean make a last minute turn for Texas? It’s a huge longshot for that to happen, with the high pressure ridge expected to stay north of it and strengthen, it’s highly unlikely. Sadly, while we have all of these resources in place in Texas, I doubt much of them will make their way in to Mexico, which is going to take a tremendous beating TWICE, once on the Yukatan, and again on the central mainland.
As my friend Steve Miller wrote about in his blog, another round of flooding is in store for a large part of Texas which is only now really starting to dry out from flooding rains earlier this year, after an extreme drought the previous year! This storm will potentially bring 6 to 10+ inches of rain in a short time frame from Corpus Christi, TX north-northwestward through the Texas Hill Country and into west Central Texas.
Flash Flood watches have already been hoisted across these areas as they are often prone to flooding when receiving large amounts of rain in a short period of time. An important observation is that most if not all of the lakes and reservoirs across the area are already at or near storage capacity. I suspect you will be seeing many stories in the news in the coming days for the effects of the flooding in Texas, and the deaths that always come with it from people that are stupid enough to drive into flooded areas.Flooding is nothing to be playing around with, especially in a car. You might have crossed that road a million times before, but you don’t know if those flood waters have washed out that small bridge, or the road bed. It takes a surprisingly low amount of water to float a vehicle!
If you live near the coast or flood prone areas, here is a nice tool to help you assess your flooding potential. FloodSmart.gov and click on the #2 link on the left WHAT’S YOUR FLOOD RISK? You can input your address and retrieve a flood map of your area.
In addition to the flooding thread there does seem to be some tornado potential as well with the added shear from the storm system. While the potential for some tornadoes to chase would normally be something I would be interested in, the high flooding potential ruins it for me, as almost all backroads and many farm to market paved roads will be unpredictably impassible, making for an extremely frustrating chase at best. Plus, there is the potential for a hurricane chase a little down the road anyway.
Steve also touched on the even worse impacts in the future in regards to now Hurricane Dean and it’s projected path into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly on in to Texas. Should a track in to Texas verify after Erin moves through, even if Dean comes in as a Tropical Storm (more likely a hurricane if it does come all the way in to Texas) the amounts of flooding across Texas could potentially be catastrophic! In addition to the huge amounts of rain that will come with it, already saturated grounds will insure even more widespread flooding and widespread easily uprooting of trees with their roots only having soggy ground to hold on to.
Summer finally truly arrived this week in west Texas.
After an unusually cool summer here in west Texas, we are finally going to have some days near or above 100 degrees. For those of you reading in other parts of the country (or world) especially from up north, that might seem extreme, but it’s actually pretty common to have quite a few days in the summer hit 100 degrees or above here, most often in July and August. So far we have been seeing more temps in the mid and upper 80s rather than the mid and upper 90s.
We have not only been on the wetter side this summer, but also on the cooler side. I for one have much enjoyed this summer, as things have been rather pleasant and unusually green across the area, and even the dry land cotton is looking outstanding. The more intense rainfall we were having earlier throughout the spring and early summer has mostly tapered off, aside from a few renegade afternoon thundershowers. Even so, dewpoints have remained unusually high for this part of the country this late in the summer. Even today as I write this, dewpoints in the mid 60s are common across the area, making it feel much more like north and east Texas than typically dry west Texas, where common dewpoints in the afternoon this time of year are often well under 40F. For those less familiar, dew point is a measure of the moisture present in the atmosphere, in this case just above ground level.
Official high temperatures at the Lubbock International Airport averaged 5.4 degrees lower than normal in May, 3.3 degrees lower in June and 2.6 degrees lower in July. The highest official temperature so far this year at the airport has been 98 degrees, although that stands to be matched or broken this week. We have also passed our climatological peak for high temperatures, so the chances for days at or above 100F are slipping away.
It was over a decade and half ago in 1991 that Lubbock made it through the year without officially breaking 100 degrees. Will we have another record year this year? This week will tell! If this comes to pass, it will only be the 5th time since records have been kept that this has ever happened.
It’s interesting to note that across the area, other observation stations are reporting a similar trend of cooler and wetter than normal conditions. Looking at the nearby Childress, TX records also shows out of 31 days, only 2 days in the normal range for temps.
All of this bodes will of course for an early and more typical fall season. I’ll go ahead and go on record and say we will see an earlier than typical first frost and freeze date this year, along with a healthy, wet winter. As the clash of the titans of Summer and Winter to once again take their Fall battlegrounds, this could potentially set up a few good severe weather episodes for the southern plains, giving us a decent 2nd season. It certainly seems the moisture isn’t in any hurry to stop hanging out in the plains.
Of course of great interest to this writer, and I suspect most readers, is now will this play for next Spring and an active storm chase season. I am not a fan of long range forecasts whatsoever, other than just general trends and pattern recognitions, but you live out on the plains long enough, you do get a “gut feeling” for these things, that prove themselves more often than not. I know, not very scientific, but it works for me. Of course neither I, nor anyone else knows what is in store of us next Spring.
We came into 2007 after an extremely crappy year for chasing in 2006, that rivaled 1988. Spring 2008 will be following a more wet and cooler year on the plains, and a pretty active year for chasing. I think the southern plains will once again be active, perhaps even more later into the season than 2007 proved to be (it was great early but then shut off down south early as well). 2008 may very well see a more “normal” severe weather season for the southern part of the plains, perhaps even with Oklahoma regaining some of it’s “Tornado Capitol of the World” status back.
Mother nature always finds a way to balance things out.
Of course neither I, nor anyone else knows what is in store of us next Spring.
